Barisal zero population

Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG (also called the replacement level of fertility, is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines , considered as a social aim by some. According to some, zero population growth, perhaps after stabilizing at some optimum population, is the ideal towards which countries and the whole world should aspire in the interests of accomplishing long-term environmental sustainability . What it means by ‘the number of people neither grows nor declines’ is that births plus in-migrants equal deaths plus out-migrants.

Barisal is a major city that lies on the bank of Kirtankhola river in south-central Bangladesh. It is the largest city and the headquarter of both Barisal district and Barisal Division. It is one of the oldest municipalities and river ports of the country, Barisal municipality was established in the year 1876 during the British Raj and upgraded to City Corporation on 25 July 2002. The city consists of 30 wards and 50 mahallas with a population of 328,278 according to the 2011 national census

Barisal is one of the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh. Located in the part of the country, it has an area of 13,644.85 km.

According to the Census of India, 1901

“In Backergunge [Backerganj] all the towns are progressive and Barisal, with nearly 19,000 inhabitants, has grown by 22% in the course of the last decade. Its most flourishing town, however, is Jhalakati which is one of the largest marts in East Bengal. It is still small but shows a very rapid rate of expansion, and its population has considerably more than doubled itself during the last ten years”

Barisal is the poorest of Bangladesh’s seven divisions. It is also the only one with a declining population. This is remarkable because, despite rapid migration into the cities, the country’s rural population is still growing. The day when more people will live in the cities than in the countryside is expected to be more than two decades away.

At the division level (table C below), a large variation is observed with regard to change in population size during the inter-censal period (2001-2011). After Sylhet, Dhaka and
Chittagong divisions have the highest growth rates, probably due to the attraction of
metropolitan areas. On the other hand, the Barisal division growth rate is zero and this
deserves further in-depth analysis when the age structure, migration patterns and other
demographic and socio-economic indicators are available. Barisal already had the lowest
population growth rate during the 1991-2001 decade.

It is expected the final census figures, to be released in 2012, to confirm this important finding of the preliminary results: Bangladesh might have experienced in the last decade a spectacular change in the sex composition of its population. A six-point decrease of the sex ratio from 2001 to 2011 represents a difference of 4 million people (fewer male and/or more female). Explanation for such a phenomenon may be found in a conjunction of several factors listed below and whose respective influence cannot be measured yet. Possible reasons for the drastic
sex ratio fall that we observe over the last decade are:

- a significant increase of external emigration, mainly concerning males;
- an improved census coverage of the female population;
- the already documented important decrease of maternal mortality;
- possibly also the female child mortality decreasing faster than the male one;
- differences in life expectancy levels and gains, both in favor of females;

The final results will provide population size, growth, composition and distribution of the projection of food, education, infrastructure, employment, healthcare and assessment of various other basic requirements as well as analysis of past, present and future growth of population. Based on the 2011 census, the Election Commission will update the electoral rolls for all national and local elections.

Experts suggest Barisal's zero growth rate deserves further in-depth analysis, as BBS in its report claims migration from the natural calamity-prone Barisal division was the reason for the no growth rate.